The numbers behind the market,
not the commentary about it.

Seven parts, written between 24 August and 6 October 2026. One argument: what is holding this market back is credit and serviceability, not tax and not sentiment. Newest first — to read the argument in order, start at Part 1 at the bottom.

1. Sales Are Falling. Your Rent Roll Isn't.

   6 October 2026 · 4 min read

   Dwelling values fell 4.3 per cent last quarter while rents rose 5.5 per cent on the year. Commission falls with prices and management fees rise with rents, so an agency's two income lines are now moving in opposite directions — drawing on Nerida Conisbee's post-Budget numbers, and the four things to do this quarter.

2. Who Owns the Rent Roll When It Does

   15 September 2026 · 8 min read

   Six senior people were asked when this ends and the answers ran from "already at the bottom" to "a full-blown recession". Morgan Stanley's three markers for the end of the slump, none of them currently lit — and why the end date is the wrong question when the industry's only durable asset is already changing hands.

3. When Does the Housing Correction End

   11 September 2026 · 13 min read

   The money didn't leave — it moved. The reform redirected investors rather than removing them, into new stock that has just become the hardest thing in the country to finance. Development debt repriced 30 to 50 basis points before Bathla collapsed owing $3.4 billion across 40 non-bank lenders, and completions are running 173,400 a year against the 240,000 the Accord requires.

4. Ten Per Cent Won't Do It

   2 September 2026 · 7 min read

   Run CBA's full 10% correction to completion and the Brisbane house yield moves from roughly 3.2% to 3.6%. An investor needs about 5.15%. Enough to hurt every vendor, not enough to bring back a single buyer.

5. The Price Floor Has a Postcode Problem

   1 September 2026 · 8 min read

   Replacement cost is a supply-side floor. A developer's spreadsheet has never cleared a transaction — a bank's serviceability calculation does. The floor only operates at the fringe, which is exactly where the buyer is weakest.

6. Brisbane's 32% decline was the Optimistic Number. Or the investor market stops trading.

   31 August 2026 · 9 min read

   The rate assumption underneath that figure has moved, and rents are bounded by what households can pay. A third outcome nobody is modelling: the market freezes rather than clears. Half of Australian small business credit is secured against residential property.

7. Brisbane property prices would need to fall 32pc to offset new tax rules — here's what that actually means

   24 August 2026 · 4 min read

   Quarantining negative gearing removes a tax shield, so yield has to do the work on its own. Three categories, one cutoff date, and why it is already thinning the buyer pool.

Where the rules have changed and the change has a date on it.

• Renovated your rental? The ATO's free formula might be quietly taxing you at the higher rate

  26 August 2026 · 5 min read

  Two reforms from the same Budget now sit on top of each other. The CGT reset values every property held across 1 July 2027 — and the ATO's free apportionment formula assumes steady growth, which is precisely what a renovation is not. Includes flow charts for both tests.

Written in early August 2026. Market figures quoted are from that period.

• The 2026 Liquidity Trap: Brisbane's clearance rate vs. the ATO

  15 August 2026 · 2 min read

  Payday Super removed the quarterly superannuation buffer agencies had quietly used to float cash flow through slow settlement months. Commissions stretch to 60 or 90 days; payroll and compliance costs do not.

• Why plunging clearance rates will expose unprepared QLD real estate agencies

  9 August 2026 · 2 min read

  When properties take an extra 45 to 60 days to sell, fixed operational costs do not pause. The cash expected this month is pushed to next quarter — and the commission lag is where an agency's liquidity actually goes.